Psepholo-babble

I am on a blogging hiatus at the moment, but thought I would jot down some thoughts on last night's election - on the political situation we see, not on what it means for the country in terms of policies.

1. Despite the injustice, the election has produced a majority government. So no chance to a change in the voting system in the next five years. Though I expect Labour 2020 to get pretty close to a commitment to real PR (as win the European elections) in its manifesto.
2. Cameron is going to have a functioning majority of about 9 (after discounting SF etc). Doesn't leave much room for by-election losses or right wing shenanigans. So this government is actually less stable than the last one, despite being a single party one. He won't build a coalition, but will need to keep some potential votes sweet - so expect some policies generous to Northern Ireland.
3. In his favour though is a divided and uncertain opposition. Labour and the LDs need to decide the direction they want to go in, and elect the right leaders to perform in the election, not to please the party. That isn't necessarily done quickly*. Resigning and taking the blame is an honourable thing to do. But maybe staying on for nine months to allow for thinking time might be better. Michael Howard did that for the Tories and they ended up with "Call Me" Dave. You may not like him, but from what they had it was a good choice for the Tories.
4. By the next election the recommended boundary changes will be in, which gives the Tories a 20 seat estimated bonus. And they will be being led by (if he keeps his nose and other protuberances clean) Boris Johnson - who remains inexplicably popular. IF people do start to feel better off, that is a formidable head start.
5. And by then the spectacularly named EVEL (English votes for English laws) will have had to be considered. If we see Scotland (and eventually Wales) as just under 100 seats of anti-Toryness, this will change future election maths hugely.
6. But we should be very worried by the divided nature of the UK - not just the SNP and the very different result between England and Scotland. But Labour is confined with a few exceptions to the cities and suburbs, whilst the rest of the map is largely blue. How on earth do we heal this divided nation?
7. There will now be an EU In/Out/Shake-it-all-about referendum in 2017. That is a massive constitutional headache if for example England votes 'Out' and Scotland votes 'In' - especially given the government's lack of a mandate in Scotland. Forces us back towards Scottish independence.
8. What will UKIP do in a 2020 election? Either we will have voted to leave the EU - and that doesn't leave them with many policies, or we will have voted to stay - and it will be hard for them to stand on a 'neverendum' platform. They have some serious reinventing to do. If they don't that's four million votes that have to go somewhere...

*well, it is for the LDs - it will be Tim Farron - probably unopposed.