Making plans for dealing with Nigel

I write this on a train from Edinburgh back to Kings Cross after a fabulous weekend with Voxcetera.

A good concert, a spot of clubbing, climbing Arthur's Seat in a hailstorm, and even a bit of culture. As I travel back the sun is shining and it feels that all is right with the world. 

Ah, yes, the European election. The cloud on my otherwise perfect horizon. The smug, Farage-shaped cloud. I do not understand why people have voted for UKIP because there is no chance I would ever do it. So I do not feel what those people feel.

As such, my "Why?" has to be speculation. But the lack of facts should never get in the way of a good blog, so here goes.

I don't think that the UKIP vote is borne of racism. Not for the vast majority. UKIP's best performances have not been in the area with the highest migration. London has performed much more as you would expect, with a drift to the official opposition.

And if a racially stronger policy was popular, we would not be celebrating the removal of the two BNP MEPs this morning, having lost 80% of their 2009 vote.

But I suspect the *fear* that jobs might be under threat to a surge of immigrants, no matter how far-fetched that actually is, is an issue. And the retired Colonels of Tunbridge Wells have always responded well to any call to raise the drawbridge.

More of an issue in my mind is that people do not see any real difference between the three major parties. There are no radical differences between them. If you want difference you either look to the Greens, or to Nige. And the Greens have done OK. Well, even. But they've never threatened a break through. Last time - in fact in my memory *every* other time there has been an alternative with the LibDems. Now they are part of government, so that one comes out. And their only chosen point of difference was Europe, more specifically the EU.

Ah yes, the EU. UKIP's rallying post. Author, if you believe Nige, of every problem this country has. The LibDems have struggled to say why the EU benefits us, just as both Con and Lab hint at the need to renegotiate treaties - which must mean they aren't the laws we should have. 

The first purpose of European union, back in the 50s, was to ensure coal and steel production was centrally controlled - with more than an eye on controlling rearmament. The Federalist goal has grown from there, and is still close to the heart of some Europeans, but of very few Brits. But Britain is a trading nation, and the Common Market was a serious attraction to us. Easier trade, breaking down of barriers, bigger markets - all good stuff. People don't see that in the EU. They see bureaucracy, and inefficiency, and perhaps corruption. 

Farage has played his hand on this well. Some of his claims are better supported than others. And of course no one significant* has left the EU, so we can't say that the world would end. He is saying "things are crap - do this and they will get better". 

So, do you** face a UKIP government in a year? Of course not. Will they fall back to a level of irrelevance as the Greens did after their big vote in the 1989 Euros? Perhaps, though not that far. Will they, horror of horrors, have enough seats to keep a Tory government in power at a disproportionate price? Yes, they might. But we have to find a way of engaging the UKIP voter with full-spectrum politics, and even more so the people who don't bother voting. And if we are serious about the EU we have to show the British people why it's a good thing. 

* Sorry Greenland, we love you, but you don't give me a working comparator here.

** I say you! because if it happens I'm off

They Fade to Grey

I had a comment on yesterday's blog via Facebook as follows:

Farage gets airtime because, however else he is found wanting, he doesn't lack character. He makes good sound bites because he clearly says what he's thinking. Same has gone for paddy pantsdown, Alan Clark, Ann Widdecombe (aka Doris Karloff), Dennis Skinner and many others over the years. At least they don't have to check their pagers and phones and get clearance from ground control to stay on message with HQ.

A perfect excuse to do another political post, so here goes…

It is certainly true that many politicians are bland and safe these days. And it is true that Boris Johnson is popular because he is a "character", and that I struggle to think of too many others right now. So it is probably right that Farage gets airtime for that reason. But airtime doesn't always means popularity.

And I don't know if this is worse than in previous generations. I suspect more convergence - it is much harder to tell Conservative from LibDem from Labour, as they increasingly come from a background of similar degrees, universities and non-jobs. But back in the 1970s there was a Labour type, just as there was a Tory type, and success often meant resembling it. There were non-conformists like Tony Benn, but were they more frequent than the ones we have now, and if so, is that because running a modern organisation allows and requires more control?

I don’t think that is why Farage is a) popular and b) doing well. I think he is gathering support because he is offering easy answers. Implicit for me in the UKIP message is that if we withdraw from Europe, and stop poor foreigners coming over here (and make those here more likely to go back) then everything will be fine. The other parties are promising more of what we have now, or very similar, at least to the untutored eye.

Of course, it cannot be as simple as that. If UKIP were to be in government and to follow through on those policies, we would still be a country with a huge deficit. And we would lack many of the low-paid individuals that the NHS relies on (and that much of London also requires). And we would be a country that had turned its back on some fairly fundamental human rights legislation, but let's gloss over that for the moment*.

But they give us an answer. A simple answer, even if it is the wrong answer to the wrong question. And people want an easy answer.

The real problem is that this country is hugely over-reliant on house prices and low interest rates to keep heads above water and the only way to sort the deep-lying economic woes is to reduce that reliance. Plus we need to educate people in relevant skills and ensure that jobs exist. Ideally higher wage jobs, rather than call centres. A recovery led by employment, not buy-to-let. And before you start calling me a socialist (because I don't see what any of the above  had to do with who controls the means of production) look at the US recovery - which has been built on jobs. Often poorly paid ones, but jobs nonetheless.

UKIP offers none of this. Mind you, neither do the three main parties - because it is not appealing to the core middle England voters to say that this may mean your house price is, at best, not going to go up for the next decade, but your mortgage payments probably are.

And of course, we aren't voting for someone to run the country. Officially we are voting at one end for people to represent us in Europe, and at the other for people to run our local services. And there is no reason why one party should be good at both, or good at that and at running a country. But we are encouraged to view this as a referendum on the government – a big vote for [you decide] will mean changed policies for all three big parties at the next election. And if that means you are left with a bunch of idiots running your local council for the next four years – well, tough.

And that's I think enough about people and personalities, and a trailer for what this should be about, which is policies. So that's where we will be next time.

* Here's a tip. Whenever anyone suggests leaving the Convention on Human Rights, or repealing the Human Rights Act, ask them which of the rights they would like to get rid of. And wait for an answer. You'll have time to make a cup of tea.

Oh Well

The dog ate it. I was ill. The wi-fi was down.

None of those are true. I must admit I thought it had been two weeks since I wrote a blog. It's been four. That is really slack. And I don't have a great excuse, I just haven't got around to it. Sorry!

What have I missed? Well, some of you may have missed my Voxcetera concert which played to a packed St Sepulchre in London last week. It was fabulous to do, and I think those attending enjoyed it too. For the first time we really took ownership of some tricky Britten and, having now heard a recording, made it sound really good. Plus of course there are those spine-tingling moments - like the way the D minor fortissimo chord towards the end of the Esenvalds piece just hung in the air and never seemed to die away.

Back to earth with a bump, I watched "Mr Toad and the Sell-Out" on BBC last night (aka the Lib Dem and UKIP debate). Clegg is Mister Political Expediency - and has been so often that he's probably retained the trophy by now. But Farage - dear God help us. In the same way as creationism got clever by evolving (maybe a bad choice of word there) into intelligent design, UKIP is just a more respectable "we hate Jonny-foreigner" party isn't it.

Watching the debate over a grotty internet link and Twitter makes one smugly complacent that no-one's falling for that old shit again. But I fear that's not the case. UKIP is generally picking up support across the spectrum, from those who are disenchanted with the political class and with, generally "Them". It's Farage's affable pub-bore facade that makes him so credible with so many. They are going to do well in the Euro elections - it's not a question of whether they beat the Lib Dems for 3rd place. I'm afraid they will do a lot better than that. That is just so embarrassing. Farage is a French M. Le Ros-bif  caricature. And Stew Lee's brilliant dissection of UKIP a couple of weeks ago doesn't counter it - UKIP voter's aren't watching stuff like that.

In case you hadn't noticed, alongside getting fit, my 'don't get political' and 'don't get sweary' New Year's resolutions have gone by the board. If you keep coming back to the blog for its gentle humour and flights of fancy, you may be disappointed (though I've not written for four weeks, so on reflection probably no more than you have been already).

Anyway, back to work... more soon